Current Predicted Five

Two performances in horror movies have recently done very well during awards season. Two years ago, Demi Moore's brilliant performance in The Substance snagged nominations at all five of the major televised award shows, winning at three of them before ultimately losing the BAFTA and Oscar to Mikey Madison's equally showstopping performance in Anora. The Substance surpassed Oscar fans expectations in general by not only being a Best Actress player, but getting nominations in Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and winning Makeup and Hairstyling. Especially for a body horror movie, this was an impressively strong package that might not have happened in years past.

The very next year, Amy Madigan had a somewhat weird but ultimately prevailing path to a Best Supporting Actress win for her horror villain performance in Weapons. Critics adored this performance and not only awarded her at many individual critic's groups but pushed her all the way to the Critics Choice win. At first, it didn't look like that passion was pushing beyond that when she lost the Golden Globe and didn't even get nominated for the BAFTA, but she came back strong with the SAG win before ultimately winning the Oscar. She also won while being the only nomination Weapons got, which typically only happens when the actor does a full sweep.

Those weren't the only horror representation these past two years. In the same year as The Substance, Nosferatu got an impressive four below the line nominations in Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling. Some will argue that this might mean the movie was closer to making Best Picture than we realize.

In the same year as Amy Madigan in Weapons, the makeup branch chose a very inspired nomination for The Ugly Stepsister, a body horror movie from Norway that wasn't really in the awards conversation otherwise, reminding us once again that the makeup branch is one of the coolest in the Academy. That's not to mention Sinners breaking the all-time Oscar nomination record with 16 nominations, scoring four wins in Best Actor, Best Original Screenplay, Cinematography, and Original Score.

All of this would lead people to believe that the Oscars are making steps in the right direction in terms of horror movies, a genre that has been historically underrepresented by the Oscars. Others are far more hesitant, not ready to believe a couple success stories are proof of permanent change.

When people started seeing and even falling in love with the new horror movie Obsession, the question started to arise, could Inde Navarrette be next?

One argument I've seen against this is people talking about how the movie will be "nowhere near best picture". This is stated by some as an almost unmovable variable, an objective fact. That invokes a question from me: how much would it take to stop accepting that as fact?

One thing I do believe is that Obsession's awards chances live and breathe off of the push for Navarrette. She's what fans are talking about. She's what critics are talking about. The film isn't getting Best Picture without Navarrette. It's not getting Original Screenplay without Navarrette. She comes first.

Comparing her to Moore and Madigan is very much a slippery slope. Those are two veteran actresses that the industry has loved for decades. If you've seen Navarrette prior to Obsession, it's likely in television shows like 13 Reasons Why and Superman & Lois. That's a major difference by itself.

The Academy also isn't the most friendly to younger, newcomer actors. Just this past year, Chase Infiniti got all four major precursor nominations in Lead Actress for One Battle After Another, yet missed the Oscar nomination. That was for an eventual best picture winner.

So what does Navarrette have going for her? Critics. When critics group nominations start popping up in just a few short months, you can expect to see her name. The passion isn't going away anytime soon. That passion pushing her all the way to a nomination at Critics Choice would be an important step in the door. I'm willing to bet that she does show up at Critics Choice, even if that ends up being her only major nomination.

What the movie itself has going for it is a very impressive box office run so far. The movie made around 30% more in its second weekend than its first and around 10% more in its third weekend than its second. It is one of the biggest box office success stories that I have ever seen.

The box office success means a couple things. One, this isn't a movie people see and forget about. Word of mouth is spreading and people are going to see it multiple times. Even with half a years worth of movies to go, this one isn't being forgotten.

The other thing it means is that it's getting at least one Golden Globe nomination. If this isn't a nomination lock for the Cinematic and Box Office Achievement award, then I still don't get what that category is for. Now many of us, myself included, don't really put any stock into this category usually. It does make one think though, is this really the only way that voting body is going to recognize that movie?

If the movie campaigns in the Musical/Comedy categories (which it should, it is a black comedy), there could definitely be room for it to squeeze into the Best Picture Musical/Comedy nomination. Beyond that though, Golden Globes is the award show where my belief that Inde Navarrette should go lead is the strongest.

Nobody quite yet agrees if she will go lead or supporting. At the time of this writing, she is in the top nine for both at the Oscars on the Award Expert app. Personally, I can see the argument for supporting. We are, at all times, solely in Bear's (played by Michael Johnston) perspective. Navarrette is "supporting" Johnston practically anytime she's onscreen. Others think she has way too much screen time to be considered supporting, which I also get.

I can't shake the feeling that going lead is the play. With the lead categories split at the Golden Globes while the supporting categories aren't, there's so much more room for her to lock that spot in. I think it would be a misstep to not take that path unless the campaign is confident she'll be a strong player in the supporting race.

BAFTA, I think, will be the main struggle for this movie's campaign. Amy Madigan didn't even make it in this past year. Of the five major award shows, BAFTA is easily the last one that I would consider putting anything Obsession related in, and that would only be if it's much stronger than I'm already currently thinking.

SAG, now called the Actor Awards, is an interesting one. The argument has been floated that they are more friendly to younger and newcomer actors than some other award shows, especially the Oscars. Last year saw Miles Caton get his only major nomination for Sinners, Chase Infiniti make it in for One Battle After Another before ultimately missing the Oscar nomination, and the first showing of Odessa A'zion for Marty Supreme, only then showing up at BAFTA but not the Oscars. That said, Sinners went on to win SAG Ensemble, One Battle After Another was otherwise the sweeper of the season, and Marty Supreme was arguably third, especially at SAG. Is it easier for Navarrette to get SAG than the Oscar? Sure, I can see that argument. Will SAG save her if she and the movie are on the weaker side? I don't quite see that.

Where does this leave us at the Oscars? The path is there, especially for Navarrette. She gets Critics Choice, she and possibly even the movie get Golden Globes Comedy, and if that's enough to solidly infuse her into the conversation, she gets SAG, giving her three of the major precursors. If the movie finds itself more solidly in the conversation as well, there's an argument to be made that it seems like an easy Producers Guild nomination given its box office success. PGA last year was enough to show us that F1 would make the Best Picture 10 at the Oscars, although the same fate wasn't shown to Weapons.

I can't help, however, to feel like there are still too many what ifs in this analysis to predict it. Horror still has such an uphill battle in being rightfully respected, even if signs show things moving in the right direction.

The other thing holding me back is the question of what the movies nomination ceiling would be. Other than Best Picture and whichever Actress category Navarrette ends up campaigning in, Original Screenplay is pretty much the only other nomination I can see it pulling in. I, personally, am of the unpopular opinion that lead actor Michael Johnston is doing equally fascinating and high quality work, but that's not a sentiment widely shared. The movie would need a huge boost to see him in the Best Actor conversation. The choices with the cinematography were very purposeful, but will be a major critique for a large group of people. While there could possibly be a world where Curry Barker enters the Director conversation, it is his first mainstream movie in a year where many beloved directors have a new movie coming out. Ultimately, anything besides those three categories feel like way too big of swings.

Ultimately, I'm going to leave Inde Navarrette and Obsession on the outside looking in of my predictions, and let time tell me if I'm underestimating it. I could be, the path is there, and I understand the people taking a chance on it. I just can't quite get there yet.

Check out my Oscar Predictions page to see what I'm predicting as of my most recent update.

There are two days left until the Cannes film festival kicks off, when we'll start hearing early reviews of many movies that may or may not carry over to awards season. This festival is a big topic at this time of year for people in the predictions space, as not only is it the first big event that can shift people's predictions, it's really the only one until the other big festivals start going in August or September. Of course we have possible movie contenders hit theaters here and there between now and then, ones that exceed expectations or just absolutely plummet. But even most of the truly big contenders don't start coming out until the later third of the year.

Before reviews for movies out of the Cannes film festival shift expectations for these films, I wanted to write about the 10 films I'm currently predicting for Best Picture, even if some of these might be outdated in just a week or two.

1. Wild Horse Nine

It's hard to think of any movie as being a clear winner this early in the season. When I first looked at my options two months ago, I even said I wonder if the winner is actually something not even on our radar yet. But if I have to go with something that is on our radar, Wild Horse Nine feels as good a bet as any.

Many people might forget that Martin McDonagh actually is an Oscar winner. He won best live action short film for Six Shooter, which he wrote and directed, back at the 2006 ceremony. Three years later, he was nominated for Original Screenplay for In Bruges, that film's only nomination. He has then had two of his movies get into Best Picture: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, which he also got an Original Screenplay nomination for, and The Banshees of Inisherin, for which he got Original Screenplay and Directing nods for. People who followed the 2018 season would tell you Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was arguably the runner up to The Shape of Water in Best Picture, and while The Banshees of Inisherin ultimately went home empty handed, it was at least in that conversation to some extent.

Despite being an Oscar winner for a short film, it's hard to argue that McDonagh isn't a guy people really want to see win another Oscar, at least for screenplay if nothing else.

That's not the only thing going for this film. It has a stacked cast, especially with John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell and the helm. Malkovich's last Oscar nomination was at the 1994 ceremony for In the Line of Fire, and he has yet to win one. There's an easy campaign waiting to happen if he's as good in the movie as expected. Searchlight seems to really believe in this film as well, heavily promoting it from as soon as it was time to move on from last years awards season. Yes, Searchlight blanked at the Oscars last year, but it hardly seems like that will be a trend. This is their main push; it will almost definitely get in.

There's also some personal bias in predicting this as the frontrunner, as it simply is the movie on the radar I'm most excited for. I highly enjoy McDonagh as both a screenwriter and a playwright. One of my oddest opinions among the recent Oscar ceremonies is that while Everything Everywhere All at Once is still my favorite movie of the decade so far, in part due to an excellent screenplay, I would have given my vote in the Original Screenplay category to The Banshees of Inisherin. The dialogue in that film is what makes it succeed and features some of the best pure talking scenes of the last few years. I will always look forward to his next film, and this one simply sounds interesting.

2. The Odyssey

Christopher Nolan directing an adaption of The Odyssey feels like such an easy thing to predict. There's a reason on Award Expert right now, in the community predictions, it is predicted for 14 nominations and 10 wins. Even if people don't really think it's going to dominate like that, it's such an obvious placeholder this early in the year. But is it just a placeholder, or does it have a real chance at being a frontrunner?

Christopher Nolan just won his first Oscars for Best Picture and Best Director two years ago for Oppenheimer, yet he feels like the type of filmmaker that should have more than that by now. That's why he seems like the best bet in Best Director right now, as no one is against the idea of giving him a second. Even then, though, that feels like a picture/director split situation.

Despite the mixed reception to the trailer, I see no real reason to doubt this getting in. It could be a player not only in Director but multiple tech categories. It's at two simply because I'm near 100% confident in the nomination. I just don't quite see the win unless it succeeds all expectations and goes down as a top tier adaption.

3. Digger

Alejandro G. Iñárritu is an interesting filmmaker. There are early reports that this could be divisive, but that shouldn't be surprising. When he hits the right chord though, he really hits it. He won Best Director in back to back years for Birdman, which won Best Picture, and The Revenant, which was arguably close to winning Best Picture after winning at both BAFTA and the Golden Globes.

This film also has two other things going for it: the potential in craft categories, most notably makeup, and the cast, with Tom Cruise in the lead and John Goodman as one of the notable supporting roles. Tom Cruise has never won an Oscar. John Goodman has never even been nominated for one.

If John Malkovich goes lead for Wild Horse Nine, something people are still debating between him and Sam Rockwell, there could be an interesting race between Malkovich and Cruise. This seems like as good a film as any to give Cruise the win, although my gut tells me Malkovich takes it anyway. It's really John Goodman in supporting that intrigues me the most. It seems unfathomable that he has never even been nominated for an Oscar, and out of the contenders on the radar so far, his narrative seems the most clear.

It wouldn't be the most shocking thing to ever happen if this isn't the hit we're expecting, but for now, there's enough potential in several areas for it to feel like a safe enough bet.

4. Project Hail Mary

The only film among these ten that has actually come out, and therefore the only one that I have seen, is Project Hail Mary. This movie was a hit with audiences, one we're still hearing about two months later. It's hard not to see that lasting.

This movie also seems more lighthearted than a lot of films on this list, something that will likely be needed. It could very well be a contender in Production Design, Sound, and even Visual Effects if Dune: Part Three doesn't just run away with that award the way the first two did. Ryan Gosling could easily be on his way to a fourth Oscar nomination. It has plenty going for it, and it's hard to imagine a film this beloved and the clear standout movie of the first quarter/first third of the year missing out.

Some people have expressed concerns with Amazon MGM campaign history, but that doesn't worry me at all with a movie this beloved. I could see a world where it goes home empty handed on Oscars night, but I have no reason to doubt it for nominations.

5. Fatherland

The first of three films on this list that we will be hearing about very soon once it premieres at Cannes. Before that, though, this seems like one of the easiest to bet on.

Pawel Pawlikowski got a Best Director nomination for Cold War despite the film not even being a Best Picture nominee. His film Ida won Best International Feature. He is a name the Academy knows already, and one they could very well be keeping their eye out for.

One of its two stars is Sandra Hüller, who will be on the radar this year for being in four films that are all in the conversation, as of right now at least. The runtime shouldn't turn potential voters off, as it's less than 90 minutes.

The biggest hesitancy I have is not knowing just how much it dives deep into Thomas Mann as a person. He is a controversial figure who, depending on the way it's approached by Pawlikowski, if addressed at all, could alienate some viewers. This has a pretty early release at Cannes, so that's one of the main things I'll be interested to hear about in a few days.

6. Sense and Sensibility

Knowing whether a new adaption of a book that has already been adapted can be tricky. Especially one whose previous adaption was already nominated for Best Picture, winning that prize at at least three other big award shows before losing the Oscar to Braveheart, and won Adapted Screenplay. It's so easy to see a world where this is a disappointing adaption, or it's fine but nothing to write home about compared to the 1995 hit.

That said, you can't argue that the source material itself isn't loved. That played such a big role in the 1995 version coming so close to the top prize. If this version even kind of justifies why another version was made, or even if its reception is mostly positive, I think it can get in pretty easily.

On top of that, it has an inherently baity type nomination in costume design, and it has a release date that's solid enough to believe this will be Focus Features main push. Director Georgia Oakley got quite a few nominations for Debut Director, First Film and Breakthrough director at various award shows for her debut film Blue Jean from 2022, suggesting that a lot of people saw potential in her right off the bat. Many signs point me towards believing this will be a good enough adaption to get in.

7. All of a Sudden

The second of the three Cannes films on this list, and the one I'm personally most hoping is good. Ruysuke Hamaguchi's Drive My Car is not only my favorite movie of 2021 and not only probably my 4th or 5th favorite movie of the decade thus far, but maybe even my favorite non-American film I've seen.

The concept of the film also sounds very interesting. Tao Okamoto plays a terminally ill playwright, and the movie is loosely inspired by a non-fiction book of published letters. There could very easily be some standout performances here along with an exploration of some real, tough things that people unfortunately go through.

The biggest thing people will look at and question is the runtime of 3 hours and 16 minutes, but Drive My Car was 3 hours as well. I don't see why that would hold this back if it gets similar acclaim.

8. The Social Reckoning

I've always been a little skeptical of this movie, but I find it hard to not somewhat believe in it as well. I would not have guessed that The Social Network would be a film to get a sequel, but it also kind of makes sense to tell more stories in the same vein.

Aaron Sorkin is back writing the screenplay, after winning the Oscar for Adapted Screenplay for The Social Network. This alone makes me feel good about it, as I tend to really like his writing, even enjoying the writing of Being the Ricardos more than others did. He's also directing this one, which for many people, isn't as strong of a sign, as David Fincher is more highly regarded from a directorial standpoint.

Still, with Sorkin writing and with a very strong cast including a lead performance by recent Oscar winner Mikey Madison, there's no way this film isn't at least in the conversation. Even if it's bottom three in best picture, it still feels like a fine enough bet.

9. Hope

Hope is a movie that I'm actually surprised to see is as high as 13th in the Award Expert community rankings at the time of writing this. I thought this was a bigger swing I was taking before going to check where it was, as it feels like one that definitely needs great reception at its Cannes premiere to breakthrough. That said, I believe that it can.

Na Hong-jin is a director who people highly respect and admire. His 2016 film The Wailing is one I've heard a lot of praise for from people who have seen it. With us getting some more variety of movies nominated at the Oscars in the past couple years, a South Korean alien movie also doesn't sound as out of the question as it once might have.

While being a South Korean movie and having many South Korean actors, it also includes a fair amount of actors that the larger American audience will recognize, such as Taylor Russell, Alicia Vikander, and Michael Fassbender. It has potential in many tech categories. It has Neon behind it, which you could see as either a positive or a negative seeing as they have a whole lot of films just like they did last year, but I lean positive.

This could be an easy drop if the Cannes reception isn't what I think it will be, but for now, I like the idea of having this in.

10. Being Heumann

Despite the mixed reception of CODA ever since its win, the idea that Sian Heder would be back in the Best Picture conversation still makes sense to me, and Being Heumann feels like the type of movie that could do it.

The movie is a biopic about Judith Heumann, a disability rights activist who did a lot of good work improving human rights legislation for people with disabilities. She is being portrayed by Ruth Madeley, who is disabled herself, providing accurate representation. Mark Ruffalo and Dylan O'Brien both have supporting roles in the movie, the former being a four time Oscar nominee and the latter being someone many people think is due for one.

This seems like the kind of movie the Academy would go for. It's my number ten because not many people are doing it, and I want to know more about it before being overly confident in it, but I think this could easily happen.

Final Thoughts

The most notable movie I'm not predicting is Dune: Part Three. The recent treatment of sequels plus the things people have been saying about the book for years have made me overly skeptical.

Jack of Spades and Cry to Heaven are both movies I want to consider more heavily, but it's hard to go all in on movies without distribution.

You can see what other movies I have on the outside looking in on my Oscar Predictions page, or by following me on Award Expert @andysmovies.