Two performances in horror movies have recently done very well during awards season. Two years ago, Demi Moore's brilliant performance in The Substance snagged nominations at all five of the major televised award shows, winning at three of them before ultimately losing the BAFTA and Oscar to Mikey Madison's equally showstopping performance in Anora. The Substance surpassed Oscar fans expectations in general by not only being a Best Actress player, but getting nominations in Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and winning Makeup and Hairstyling. Especially for a body horror movie, this was an impressively strong package that might not have happened in years past.
The very next year, Amy Madigan had a somewhat weird but ultimately prevailing path to a Best Supporting Actress win for her horror villain performance in Weapons. Critics adored this performance and not only awarded her at many individual critic's groups but pushed her all the way to the Critics Choice win. At first, it didn't look like that passion was pushing beyond that when she lost the Golden Globe and didn't even get nominated for the BAFTA, but she came back strong with the SAG win before ultimately winning the Oscar. She also won while being the only nomination Weapons got, which typically only happens when the actor does a full sweep.
Those weren't the only horror representation these past two years. In the same year as The Substance, Nosferatu got an impressive four below the line nominations in Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling. Some will argue that this might mean the movie was closer to making Best Picture than we realize.
In the same year as Amy Madigan in Weapons, the makeup branch chose a very inspired nomination for The Ugly Stepsister, a body horror movie from Norway that wasn't really in the awards conversation otherwise, reminding us once again that the makeup branch is one of the coolest in the Academy. That's not to mention Sinners breaking the all-time Oscar nomination record with 16 nominations, scoring four wins in Best Actor, Best Original Screenplay, Cinematography, and Original Score.
All of this would lead people to believe that the Oscars are making steps in the right direction in terms of horror movies, a genre that has been historically underrepresented by the Oscars. Others are far more hesitant, not ready to believe a couple success stories are proof of permanent change.
When people started seeing and even falling in love with the new horror movie Obsession, the question started to arise, could Inde Navarrette be next?
One argument I've seen against this is people talking about how the movie will be "nowhere near best picture". This is stated by some as an almost unmovable variable, an objective fact. That invokes a question from me: how much would it take to stop accepting that as fact?
One thing I do believe is that Obsession's awards chances live and breathe off of the push for Navarrette. She's what fans are talking about. She's what critics are talking about. The film isn't getting Best Picture without Navarrette. It's not getting Original Screenplay without Navarrette. She comes first.
Comparing her to Moore and Madigan is very much a slippery slope. Those are two veteran actresses that the industry has loved for decades. If you've seen Navarrette prior to Obsession, it's likely in television shows like 13 Reasons Why and Superman & Lois. That's a major difference by itself.
The Academy also isn't the most friendly to younger, newcomer actors. Just this past year, Chase Infiniti got all four major precursor nominations in Lead Actress for One Battle After Another, yet missed the Oscar nomination. That was for an eventual best picture winner.
So what does Navarrette have going for her? Critics. When critics group nominations start popping up in just a few short months, you can expect to see her name. The passion isn't going away anytime soon. That passion pushing her all the way to a nomination at Critics Choice would be an important step in the door. I'm willing to bet that she does show up at Critics Choice, even if that ends up being her only major nomination.
What the movie itself has going for it is a very impressive box office run so far. The movie made around 30% more in its second weekend than its first and around 10% more in its third weekend than its second. It is one of the biggest box office success stories that I have ever seen.
The box office success means a couple things. One, this isn't a movie people see and forget about. Word of mouth is spreading and people are going to see it multiple times. Even with half a years worth of movies to go, this one isn't being forgotten.
The other thing it means is that it's getting at least one Golden Globe nomination. If this isn't a nomination lock for the Cinematic and Box Office Achievement award, then I still don't get what that category is for. Now many of us, myself included, don't really put any stock into this category usually. It does make one think though, is this really the only way that voting body is going to recognize that movie?
If the movie campaigns in the Musical/Comedy categories (which it should, it is a black comedy), there could definitely be room for it to squeeze into the Best Picture Musical/Comedy nomination. Beyond that though, Golden Globes is the award show where my belief that Inde Navarrette should go lead is the strongest.
Nobody quite yet agrees if she will go lead or supporting. At the time of this writing, she is in the top nine for both at the Oscars on the Award Expert app. Personally, I can see the argument for supporting. We are, at all times, solely in Bear's (played by Michael Johnston) perspective. Navarrette is "supporting" Johnston practically anytime she's onscreen. Others think she has way too much screen time to be considered supporting, which I also get.
I can't shake the feeling that going lead is the play. With the lead categories split at the Golden Globes while the supporting categories aren't, there's so much more room for her to lock that spot in. I think it would be a misstep to not take that path unless the campaign is confident she'll be a strong player in the supporting race.
BAFTA, I think, will be the main struggle for this movie's campaign. Amy Madigan didn't even make it in this past year. Of the five major award shows, BAFTA is easily the last one that I would consider putting anything Obsession related in, and that would only be if it's much stronger than I'm already currently thinking.
SAG, now called the Actor Awards, is an interesting one. The argument has been floated that they are more friendly to younger and newcomer actors than some other award shows, especially the Oscars. Last year saw Miles Caton get his only major nomination for Sinners, Chase Infiniti make it in for One Battle After Another before ultimately missing the Oscar nomination, and the first showing of Odessa A'zion for Marty Supreme, only then showing up at BAFTA but not the Oscars. That said, Sinners went on to win SAG Ensemble, One Battle After Another was otherwise the sweeper of the season, and Marty Supreme was arguably third, especially at SAG. Is it easier for Navarrette to get SAG than the Oscar? Sure, I can see that argument. Will SAG save her if she and the movie are on the weaker side? I don't quite see that.
Where does this leave us at the Oscars? The path is there, especially for Navarrette. She gets Critics Choice, she and possibly even the movie get Golden Globes Comedy, and if that's enough to solidly infuse her into the conversation, she gets SAG, giving her three of the major precursors. If the movie finds itself more solidly in the conversation as well, there's an argument to be made that it seems like an easy Producers Guild nomination given its box office success. PGA last year was enough to show us that F1 would make the Best Picture 10 at the Oscars, although the same fate wasn't shown to Weapons.
I can't help, however, to feel like there are still too many what ifs in this analysis to predict it. Horror still has such an uphill battle in being rightfully respected, even if signs show things moving in the right direction.
The other thing holding me back is the question of what the movies nomination ceiling would be. Other than Best Picture and whichever Actress category Navarrette ends up campaigning in, Original Screenplay is pretty much the only other nomination I can see it pulling in. I, personally, am of the unpopular opinion that lead actor Michael Johnston is doing equally fascinating and high quality work, but that's not a sentiment widely shared. The movie would need a huge boost to see him in the Best Actor conversation. The choices with the cinematography were very purposeful, but will be a major critique for a large group of people. While there could possibly be a world where Curry Barker enters the Director conversation, it is his first mainstream movie in a year where many beloved directors have a new movie coming out. Ultimately, anything besides those three categories feel like way too big of swings.
Ultimately, I'm going to leave Inde Navarrette and Obsession on the outside looking in of my predictions, and let time tell me if I'm underestimating it. I could be, the path is there, and I understand the people taking a chance on it. I just can't quite get there yet.
Check out my Oscar Predictions page to see what I'm predicting as of my most recent update.