Lead Actor Predictions - June 2026

June through August are the months where there's the biggest lull in awards predictions. The Cannes Film Festival is over, the other fall film festivals are still months away, and only a few of the movies that are going to be in the conversation are coming out.

During this period, I'm going to write some quick thoughts on my current predictions, starting with Lead Actor.

Here is who I'm predicting for Lead Actor as of June 23, 2026

1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
2. Tom Cruise, Digger
3. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!
4. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary
5. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

With Wild Horse Nine being my current Best Picture winner prediction, it only makes sense that John Malkovich would come along with it. Malkovich hasn't yet won an Oscar, and his last nomination was over 30 years ago. The narrative is there.

Many people are currently predicting Tom Cruise for similar reasons, the narrative is there. I've always had a feeling that people are a bit too confident in it being a done deal. If Digger is as divisive as early reports suggest, this might not have to happen. That's why I'm currently giving the edge to Malkovich.

Pedro Pascal has been in a lot of movies recently, but none of them really had the potential to propel him to awards attention. If Behemoth! is as good as it's rumored to be, Pascal is someone people would love to recognize.

As long as Project Hail Mary lasts throughout the year, Ryan Gosling is the movie and should come along with it, but he's someone I can see falling out if the movie loses steam.

John Turturro is the only actor I'm predicting from a movie I'm not predicting for Best Picture. However, with Sony Pictures Classics having The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, and Turturro never being nominated before, this could be their push for this year.

Next in Line