There are two days left until the Cannes film festival kicks off, when we'll start hearing early reviews of many movies that may or may not carry over to awards season. This festival is a big topic at this time of year for people in the predictions space, as not only is it the first big event that can shift people's predictions, it's really the only one until the other big festivals start going in August or September. Of course we have possible movie contenders hit theaters here and there between now and then, ones that exceed expectations or just absolutely plummet. But even most of the truly big contenders don't start coming out until the later third of the year.

Before reviews for movies out of the Cannes film festival shift expectations for these films, I wanted to write about the 10 films I'm currently predicting for Best Picture, even if some of these might be outdated in just a week or two.

1. Wild Horse Nine

It's hard to think of any movie as being a clear winner this early in the season. When I first looked at my options two months ago, I even said I wonder if the winner is actually something not even on our radar yet. But if I have to go with something that is on our radar, Wild Horse Nine feels as good a bet as any.

Many people might forget that Martin McDonagh actually is an Oscar winner. He won best live action short film for Six Shooter, which he wrote and directed, back at the 2006 ceremony. Three years later, he was nominated for Original Screenplay for In Bruges, that film's only nomination. He has then had two of his movies get into Best Picture: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, which he also got an Original Screenplay nomination for, and The Banshees of Inisherin, for which he got Original Screenplay and Directing nods for. People who followed the 2018 season would tell you Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was arguably the runner up to The Shape of Water in Best Picture, and while The Banshees of Inisherin ultimately went home empty handed, it was at least in that conversation to some extent.

Despite being an Oscar winner for a short film, it's hard to argue that McDonagh isn't a guy people really want to see win another Oscar, at least for screenplay if nothing else.

That's not the only thing going for this film. It has a stacked cast, especially with John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell and the helm. Malkovich's last Oscar nomination was at the 1994 ceremony for In the Line of Fire, and he has yet to win one. There's an easy campaign waiting to happen if he's as good in the movie as expected. Searchlight seems to really believe in this film as well, heavily promoting it from as soon as it was time to move on from last years awards season. Yes, Searchlight blanked at the Oscars last year, but it hardly seems like that will be a trend. This is their main push; it will almost definitely get in.

There's also some personal bias in predicting this as the frontrunner, as it simply is the movie on the radar I'm most excited for. I highly enjoy McDonagh as both a screenwriter and a playwright. One of my oddest opinions among the recent Oscar ceremonies is that while Everything Everywhere All at Once is still my favorite movie of the decade so far, in part due to an excellent screenplay, I would have given my vote in the Original Screenplay category to The Banshees of Inisherin. The dialogue in that film is what makes it succeed and features some of the best pure talking scenes of the last few years. I will always look forward to his next film, and this one simply sounds interesting.

2. The Odyssey

Christopher Nolan directing an adaption of The Odyssey feels like such an easy thing to predict. There's a reason on Award Expert right now, in the community predictions, it is predicted for 14 nominations and 10 wins. Even if people don't really think it's going to dominate like that, it's such an obvious placeholder this early in the year. But is it just a placeholder, or does it have a real chance at being a frontrunner?

Christopher Nolan just won his first Oscars for Best Picture and Best Director two years ago for Oppenheimer, yet he feels like the type of filmmaker that should have more than that by now. That's why he seems like the best bet in Best Director right now, as no one is against the idea of giving him a second. Even then, though, that feels like a picture/director split situation.

Despite the mixed reception to the trailer, I see no real reason to doubt this getting in. It could be a player not only in Director but multiple tech categories. It's at two simply because I'm near 100% confident in the nomination. I just don't quite see the win unless it succeeds all expectations and goes down as a top tier adaption.

3. Digger

Alejandro G. Iñárritu is an interesting filmmaker. There are early reports that this could be divisive, but that shouldn't be surprising. When he hits the right chord though, he really hits it. He won Best Director in back to back years for Birdman, which won Best Picture, and The Revenant, which was arguably close to winning Best Picture after winning at both BAFTA and the Golden Globes.

This film also has two other things going for it: the potential in craft categories, most notably makeup, and the cast, with Tom Cruise in the lead and John Goodman as one of the notable supporting roles. Tom Cruise has never won an Oscar. John Goodman has never even been nominated for one.

If John Malkovich goes lead for Wild Horse Nine, something people are still debating between him and Sam Rockwell, there could be an interesting race between Malkovich and Cruise. This seems like as good a film as any to give Cruise the win, although my gut tells me Malkovich takes it anyway. It's really John Goodman in supporting that intrigues me the most. It seems unfathomable that he has never even been nominated for an Oscar, and out of the contenders on the radar so far, his narrative seems the most clear.

It wouldn't be the most shocking thing to ever happen if this isn't the hit we're expecting, but for now, there's enough potential in several areas for it to feel like a safe enough bet.

4. Project Hail Mary

The only film among these ten that has actually come out, and therefore the only one that I have seen, is Project Hail Mary. This movie was a hit with audiences, one we're still hearing about two months later. It's hard not to see that lasting.

This movie also seems more lighthearted than a lot of films on this list, something that will likely be needed. It could very well be a contender in Production Design, Sound, and even Visual Effects if Dune: Part Three doesn't just run away with that award the way the first two did. Ryan Gosling could easily be on his way to a fourth Oscar nomination. It has plenty going for it, and it's hard to imagine a film this beloved and the clear standout movie of the first quarter/first third of the year missing out.

Some people have expressed concerns with Amazon MGM campaign history, but that doesn't worry me at all with a movie this beloved. I could see a world where it goes home empty handed on Oscars night, but I have no reason to doubt it for nominations.

5. Fatherland

The first of three films on this list that we will be hearing about very soon once it premieres at Cannes. Before that, though, this seems like one of the easiest to bet on.

Pawel Pawlikowski got a Best Director nomination for Cold War despite the film not even being a Best Picture nominee. His film Ida won Best International Feature. He is a name the Academy knows already, and one they could very well be keeping their eye out for.

One of its two stars is Sandra Hüller, who will be on the radar this year for being in four films that are all in the conversation, as of right now at least. The runtime shouldn't turn potential voters off, as it's less than 90 minutes.

The biggest hesitancy I have is not knowing just how much it dives deep into Thomas Mann as a person. He is a controversial figure who, depending on the way it's approached by Pawlikowski, if addressed at all, could alienate some viewers. This has a pretty early release at Cannes, so that's one of the main things I'll be interested to hear about in a few days.

6. Sense and Sensibility

Knowing whether a new adaption of a book that has already been adapted can be tricky. Especially one whose previous adaption was already nominated for Best Picture, winning that prize at at least three other big award shows before losing the Oscar to Braveheart, and won Adapted Screenplay. It's so easy to see a world where this is a disappointing adaption, or it's fine but nothing to write home about compared to the 1995 hit.

That said, you can't argue that the source material itself isn't loved. That played such a big role in the 1995 version coming so close to the top prize. If this version even kind of justifies why another version was made, or even if its reception is mostly positive, I think it can get in pretty easily.

On top of that, it has an inherently baity type nomination in costume design, and it has a release date that's solid enough to believe this will be Focus Features main push. Director Georgia Oakley got quite a few nominations for Debut Director, First Film and Breakthrough director at various award shows for her debut film Blue Jean from 2022, suggesting that a lot of people saw potential in her right off the bat. Many signs point me towards believing this will be a good enough adaption to get in.

7. All of a Sudden

The second of the three Cannes films on this list, and the one I'm personally most hoping is good. Ruysuke Hamaguchi's Drive My Car is not only my favorite movie of 2021 and not only probably my 4th or 5th favorite movie of the decade thus far, but maybe even my favorite non-American film I've seen.

The concept of the film also sounds very interesting. Tao Okamoto plays a terminally ill playwright, and the movie is loosely inspired by a non-fiction book of published letters. There could very easily be some standout performances here along with an exploration of some real, tough things that people unfortunately go through.

The biggest thing people will look at and question is the runtime of 3 hours and 16 minutes, but Drive My Car was 3 hours as well. I don't see why that would hold this back if it gets similar acclaim.

8. The Social Reckoning

I've always been a little skeptical of this movie, but I find it hard to not somewhat believe in it as well. I would not have guessed that The Social Network would be a film to get a sequel, but it also kind of makes sense to tell more stories in the same vein.

Aaron Sorkin is back writing the screenplay, after winning the Oscar for Adapted Screenplay for The Social Network. This alone makes me feel good about it, as I tend to really like his writing, even enjoying the writing of Being the Ricardos more than others did. He's also directing this one, which for many people, isn't as strong of a sign, as David Fincher is more highly regarded from a directorial standpoint.

Still, with Sorkin writing and with a very strong cast including a lead performance by recent Oscar winner Mikey Madison, there's no way this film isn't at least in the conversation. Even if it's bottom three in best picture, it still feels like a fine enough bet.

9. Hope

Hope is a movie that I'm actually surprised to see is as high as 13th in the Award Expert community rankings at the time of writing this. I thought this was a bigger swing I was taking before going to check where it was, as it feels like one that definitely needs great reception at its Cannes premiere to breakthrough. That said, I believe that it can.

Na Hong-jin is a director who people highly respect and admire. His 2016 film The Wailing is one I've heard a lot of praise for from people who have seen it. With us getting some more variety of movies nominated at the Oscars in the past couple years, a South Korean alien movie also doesn't sound as out of the question as it once might have.

While being a South Korean movie and having many South Korean actors, it also includes a fair amount of actors that the larger American audience will recognize, such as Taylor Russell, Alicia Vikander, and Michael Fassbender. It has potential in many tech categories. It has Neon behind it, which you could see as either a positive or a negative seeing as they have a whole lot of films just like they did last year, but I lean positive.

This could be an easy drop if the Cannes reception isn't what I think it will be, but for now, I like the idea of having this in.

10. Being Heumann

Despite the mixed reception of CODA ever since its win, the idea that Sian Heder would be back in the Best Picture conversation still makes sense to me, and Being Heumann feels like the type of movie that could do it.

The movie is a biopic about Judith Heumann, a disability rights activist who did a lot of good work improving human rights legislation for people with disabilities. She is being portrayed by Ruth Madeley, who is disabled herself, providing accurate representation. Mark Ruffalo and Dylan O'Brien both have supporting roles in the movie, the former being a four time Oscar nominee and the latter being someone many people think is due for one.

This seems like the kind of movie the Academy would go for. It's my number ten because not many people are doing it, and I want to know more about it before being overly confident in it, but I think this could easily happen.

Final Thoughts

The most notable movie I'm not predicting is Dune: Part Three. The recent treatment of sequels plus the things people have been saying about the book for years have made me overly skeptical.

Jack of Spades and Cry to Heaven are both movies I want to consider more heavily, but it's hard to go all in on movies without distribution.

You can see what other movies I have on the outside looking in on my Oscar Predictions page, or by following me on Award Expert @andysmovies.

Whenever a sequel is announced, there's usually some question about how good it's going to be in relation to the first. Especially when a movie is as beloved as The Devil Wears Prada, there's a lot the movie has to live up to. Thankfully, this sequel does a lot right.

The Devil Wears Prada 2 sees the return of Anne Hathaway as Andy Sachs, who, shortly after getting fired from her current job, gets a call to return to Runway. She finds out upon arriving that it was not Miranda Priestly (Meryl Streep) who rehired her, and seemingly, Miranda doesn't even remember her. Nigel (Stanley Tucci) still works at Runway twenty years later, but Emily (Emily Blunt) no longer does, instead working at Dior.

The return of these four iconic characters starts the movie out at an advantage. All four performances are just as strong as they were twenty years ago. These are four top tier actors who effortlessly found these characters all over again, and the familiarity sets us right back into this world.

The first half of the movie is genuinely very fun, maybe even more so than the first movie. There's a lot of the same, but there's also a lot pushing the narrative forward. We see how hurt Andy is that Miranda doesn't remember her and how there's an even bigger drive for Andy to impress her than in the first film. We see Andy want to reconnect with Emily and know when and why she left Runway. We see how effortlessly she reconnects with Nigel and is surprised he hasn't really gone anywhere with his career. We see where these characters have grown and where they have stayed the same through the eyes of Andy, and we see how much that drives her actions and desires throughout the film.

The subplots also work better here than in the first film. My biggest issue with the original film is how disjointed it can all feel when we go from scenes of Andy working to scenes of her boyfriend to scenes of her friends. Here, those similar story beats felt more naturally weaved in. The friends feel like they serve a little more of a purpose than just noticing that the job is changing her. While the romance could have easily been written out of this film, it still feels a step beyond the one note nature of Nate from the first film. This isn't to say it was perfect, or that I still didn't prefer the scenes when we're focused on Andy at work, but it didn't disrupt the flow nearly as much.

The third act is where the movie starts to lose me. It never completely loses the fun spirit of the movie, but it has so much payoff that it wants to give that it starts to feel repetitive. Character realizations about another character or about something that happened earlier in the film happen are handled in the same way with the same beats for what feels like twenty scenes in a row. Many of these moments felt necessary, but there had to be a way to spread them out more or let some of them develop more naturally. This is where it felt like the flow was interrupted with these scenes causing a more somber tone than these movies are typically going for. It left me ready for the movie to end a few scenes before it did, which is disappointing when the first half is so fun.

Still, as a sequel, this was very satisfying. Most of it felt like it built upon the first and even improved in some aspects. While a better final act could have gotten me to say this is the better movie, I still left feeling like it was on par with it, and that's all I really need from a sequel.

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